Our Research
Generating research and analysis, and shaping that into actionable advice, is at the heart of Swans5. We will open up our reports to paying subscribers from the start of 2025, all Swans5 Investors automatically receiving this service for free.
We also offer bespoke ‘special tasks’ consultancy on this theme on a commercial basis.
Our sources include the real-life and online media and their archives, official records of trade and investment flows, other information services (in Russia and outside) on the Russian economy, stock exchange records, private interviews with captains of industry and seeking insights from brokers and investment experts in Russia and across the world.
We will be making careful use of AI.
Clients will include companies with past direct investment in Russia who will benefit from our analysis and our newsfeed service, as well as being able to commission tailored reports and action.
We will develop methodologies and systems for identifying targets and monitoring them until and after investment execution. This will also present ‘negative opportunities’ where our conclusions will be that a certain asset will decline in relative value in a post-war scenario, and we may suggest long-short plays in certain sectors and markets – which are also effectively switch recommendations.
Example 1: a non-sanctioned listed company outside Russia would draw our attention if it:
- Provided profitably to Russia a good or service still needed post-war
- Enjoys ongoing brand recognition
- Has firm longstanding relationships with clients ready to buy again
- Is not impacted by new technologies or new global competitors
- Is not facing serious import substitution established recently in Russia
- Has channels for delivery into Russian market are largely intact
- The Russian future business has potential to add over 50% to entity value
Such a company might supply components for the auto sector or aircraft services.
Example 2: a non-sanctioned listed company in Russia could be of interest if it:
- Is not associated with the military sector
- Operates transparently with a modern business approach
- Is profitably growing without reliance on state subsidies
- Has secure access to necessary raw materials for production
- Has potential for export, not realised under sanctions
- Is likely to retain its import substitution local market when imports restart
- May have corporate growth potential through local acquisition
- Has no obvious obstacles to liquidity such as a controlling shareholder
Such a company might make products from local timber or mineral resources.
Example 3: A retailer who ceased operations in Russia in 2022 might collaborate with Swans5 to prepare a potential return plan for their internal consideration, involving:
- Assessing their past activity for remaining assets, resources, goodwill, relationships and lessons learned
- Researching the changed competitive and legal landscapes for a staged return to the market
- Considering key personnel, locations and supply partnerships required
- Reviewing preferred banking and professional services needs for the prospective re-opening
- If appropriate looking at new Russian suppliers and potential export to supply own outlets outside Russia
- Creation of risk-matrix to assess the optimal risk-return of timing of re-entry once unsanctioned
